willthiseverwork.com / Will it pay back?

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Will it pay back?

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Subscription app economics

Will one customer ever pay back what they cost you?

Start from your category’s published medians, then change any number. Results update as you type.

Published medians for conversion, monthly price and renewals. CPI uses the available Apple Ads reference.

Benchmark scope and fixed assumptions

One paying customer from ads12-month value
LOSS−$67.68

lost on each paying customer, before fixed costs

Cost to win one paying customer

$88.95

$3.14 per install ÷ 3.53% who pay

Value of one paying customer, 12 months

$21.27

with published renewal benchmarks, after store fee, refunds and operating cost

What needs to be true: $0.75 or less per install, or 14.8% or more of installs paying.

Other questions

What is one paying customer worth?Where the $21.27 comes from: renewals, fees and refunds.Can you fund the wait?See the cash you would need, using these numbers.Next question: how will they find it?The Meta ads starter will show where to start before you spend. It’s being built.Tell me when it’s live

Questions

What’s the most I should pay per install (CPI)?

Whatever keeps you at or under the “or less” line above: the value of one paying customer over 12 months, multiplied by the share of installs that pay.

Is the Apple Ads cost my cost per install?

It is Adapty’s reported Apple Ads media spend per download for your category, not a guaranteed cost. It assumes one download equals one new install; repeat downloads can make your real cost per install higher, and it does not cover other ad channels.

Does it work for Google Play apps?

There is no published Apple-Ads-style cost-per-download reference for Google Play, so cost per install starts empty. Type your own number to see the same result.

Where do the category numbers come from?

RevenueCat’s State of Subscription Apps 2026, Adapty’s State of In-App Subscriptions 2026, and Adapty’s Apple Ads 2026 report — the same sources the App Growth Simulator uses. After the reported early monthly renewals, the model assumes 80% renewal each month.

Is anything I enter stored?

Your numbers are saved in this browser so the three tools share one scenario. They are not sent to us. Analytics may record which button, link, disclosure, field or FAQ you use, plus category, store, region, result state and the page address without query parameters. It never records the numbers you type.